BJ's Final 4A Rankings
- Brandon Jones
- Nov 1
- 11 min read
The AIA will announce the official expanded 24-team 4A playoff bracket in less than 1 hour based on their computer power-point ranking system. Here is how I would seed the wild 4A conference:
Arcadia
Ranking: 1
Overall Record: 10-0
Blowout Wins: #3 Bradshaw Mountain (+29), #9 Combs (+37), #17 Deer Valley (+25), #18 Mesquite (+42), #19 Eastmark (+25)
Other Ranked Wins: #2 Snowflake (+10)
Quality losses: None
Blowout losses: None
Bad losses: None
I'm trying to go to bed man. Y'all know why they're #1, no need for me to even justify this.
Snowflake
Ranking: 2
Overall Record: 9-1
Blowout Wins: #11 ALA West Foothills (+20), #7 Marcos De Niza (+31), #9 Combs (+17), #18 Mesquite (+28), #19 Eastmark (+20)
Quality losses: #2 Arcadia (-10)
Blowout losses: None
Bad losses: None
Pretty clear cut #2 team in 4A. If they can knock off Bradshaw Mountain a second time, this time at home in a potential semifinal, Sun Devil Stadium will be packed and electric for the 4A state title game. Snowflake is Arizona's Dillon Panthers. If you know, you know.
Bradshaw Mountain
Ranking: 3
Overall Record: 8-2
Blowout Wins: #23 Buckeye Union (+36)
Quality losses: #2 Snowflake (-3)
Blowout losses: #1 Arcadia (-29)
Bad losses: None
Our clear cut #3 team Bradshaw Mountain lost to 1 and 2 and beat #4. About as good of an 8-2 team as you're gonna find.
Mohave
Ranking: 4
Overall Record: 8-2
Blowout losses: None
Bad losses: None
The Thunderbirds seem to be handling the transition from 3A to 4A just fine. They have been absolutely rolling with their lone losses to Bradshaw Mountain and Coconino in back to back weeks. They also steamrolled really good Paradise Honors and Lee Williams teams.
Coconino
Ranking: 5
Overall Record: 6-4
Blowout Wins: None
Quality losses: #2 Snowflake (-5), #3 Bradshaw Mountain (-7), #13 St. Mary's (-4), 5A Sunrise Mountain (-3)
Blowout losses: None
Bad losses: None
Coconino might be the best 6-4 team 4A has seen. The Panthers had Snowflake and Bradshaw Mountain on the ropes with their other two losses being to a very good St. Mary's team and 5A playoff bubble team in Sunrise Mountain.
Gila Ridge
Ranking: 6
Overall Record: 9-1
Blowout Wins: #23 Buckeye Union (+19)
Quality losses: #8 Lake Havasu (-9)
Blowout losses: None
Bad losses: None
The Hawks hold the second longest winning streak in 4A, only behind 10-0 Arcadia. Jessica Slaughter, the only female head coach that I'm aware of in AZHSFB, has her boys rolling. They have done more than enough in my eyes to earn a first-round bye.
Marcos De Niza
Ranking: 7
Overall Record: 9-1
Blowout Wins: #18 Mesquite (+23)
Other Ranked Wins: None
Quality losses: None
Blowout losses: #2 Snowflake (-31)
Bad losses: None
The Padres skated through a rather light schedule, but they blew out Mesquite, which looks like a much more impressive win than it did at the time, and their only loss is to Snowflake. Crazy to think it's only been 3 years since the Padres last went 9-1. I'm interested to see what draw they get in the first round.
Lake Havasu
Ranking: 8
Overall Record: 8-2
Blowout Wins: #24 Youngker (+17)
Blowout losses: None
Bad losses: None
The Knights are back after a couple rough seasons following their 2022 run to the semifinals as a 13 seed. And they have been very impressive. Mohave County has three really solid 4A teams.
Combs
Ranking: 9
Overall Record: 8-2
Blowout Wins: #18 Mesquite (+34)
Quality losses: None
Bad losses: None
Some may have Combs ranked higher, but it is hard for me to do so without them having any top 10 wins and two blowout losses on their resumé. There is definitely an argument for them to be above Marcos, Havasu, or Coconino, but I have the Coyotes as my top seed without a bye. Interested to see if the computer agrees.
Peoria
Ranking: 10
Overall Record: 7-3
Blowout Wins: #15 Paradise Honors (+22)
Blowout losses: 5A #13 Cactus (-34)
Bad losses: None
After getting the brakes beat off of them by 5A rival Cactus, Peoria was 1-3 with Poston Butte and a 5-game region gauntlet ahead of them. I had said before the season, I have no clue what Peoria team we were gonna get this season, and at this point it looked like we were gonna get a 2-8 team that wouldn't make playoffs.
The Panthers beat Poston Butte by 30 in their "get right" game before railing off 4 consecutive top 15 wins. Thunderbird would have been another ranked win if they weren't in a free fall heading into the matchup.
ALA West Foothills
Ranking: 11
Overall Record: 6-4
Blowout Wins: None
Quality losses: #10 Peoria (-8)
Bad losses: None
The blowout loss to Paradise Honors might have been what costed the Guardians a first-round bye. Their win over 8-2 Mica Mountain looks better every week and then they went 3-1 in their other 4 region games in 4A's toughest region.
Mica Mountain
Ranking: 12
Overall Record: 8-2
Blowout Wins: #21 Sahuaro (+21)
Other Ranked Wins: #20 Walden Grove (+6)
Quality losses: #11 ALA West Foothills
Blowout losses: None
Bad losses: 5A Sunnyside
Back to back losses to ALA West Foothills and Sunnyside put the nail in the coffin to Mica Mountain's chances at a first round bye. But the Bolts take a 6-game winning streak into the playoffs as they try to repeat as 4A champs.
St. Mary's
Ranking: 13
Overall Record: 6-4
Blowout Wins: #18 Mesquite (+21)
Other Ranked Wins: #15 Paradise Honors (+7)
Quality losses: #6 Gila Ridge (-7), #10 Peoria (-1), #11 ALA West Foothills (-10), #14 NW Christian (-4)
Blowout losses: None
Bad losses: None
Another victim of the 4A Skyline gauntlet region. The Knights have impressive wins over Mesquite and Paradise Honors, but they blew big opportunities against Gila Ridge, Peoria, ALA West Foothills, and NW Christian.
Northwest Christian
Ranking: 14
Overall Record: 6-4
Blowout Wins: #15 Paradise Honors (+21)
Other Ranked Wins: #13 St. Mary's (+4)
Blowout losses: None
Bad losses: Prescott (-14)
This team has to be kicking themselves for not beating Prescott in Week 2. Although Prescott hasn't been bad this season, they were on a serious slide with their tough schedule and finished 4-6.
NW Christian has a pair of huge quality wins as well as 3 ones score losses to three of the conferences top teams. I'd hate to be the team that has to face them in the first round because the computer completely underseeded them.
Paradise Honors
Ranking: 15
Overall Record: 5-5
Blowout Wins: #11 ALA West Foothills (+28)
Other Ranked Wins: None
Bad losses: None
A convincing 35-7 win catapulted the Panthers quite high in my rankings, but outside of that night Paradise Honors has struggled to finish games. Mohave, Peoria, and NW Christian didn't give them much of a chance to win, but Combs blocked a punt out the back of the end zone with less than 2 minutes left to beat them 2-0 and St. Mary's beat them by one score.
Not sure what to expect out of the Panthers in the postseason but they should comfortably be in.
Lee Williams
Ranking: 16
Overall Record: 6-4
Blowout Wins: None
Other Ranked Wins: None
Blowout losses: #4 Mohave (-51)
Bad losses: None
The Volunteers' best win is a 29-3 win over Prescott, who may not be a playoff team, but is ranked way too low in the powerpoint rankings. Although they don't have the marquee win that most of these teams have, all of their losses are to top 8 teams and 2 of them were one-score games. They have done enough to not only make playoffs but also to have a home play-in game in my opinion.
Deer Valley
Ranking: 17
Overall Record: 6-4
Blowout Wins: None
Quality losses: #23 Buckeye Union (-7)
Blowout losses: #1 Arcadia (-25), 5A Chaparral (-24)
Bad losses: Thunderbird (-13)
It's noteworthy that the Deer Valley loss to Thunderbird came before the Titans went into a free fall and lost 5 games in a row (4 in blowout fashion), but man that loss looks a lot worse now than it did at the time of the game.
However, they have two massive wins over #8 Lake Havasu and #10 Peoria that should stave off any bubble conversations.
Mesquite
Ranking: 18
Overall Record: 5-5
Blowout Wins: None
Quality losses: None
Blowout losses: #1 Arcadia (-42), #2 Snowflake (-28), #7 Marcos De Niza (-23), #9 Combs (-34), #13 St. Mary's (-21)
Bad losses: None
When you have two wins over playoff teams and 4 of your 5 losses are to top 10 teams, you shouldn't be on the playoff bubble and that is why I comfortably have the Wildcats in the postseason of my rankings in Year One under new head coach Jesse Hart.
Going 5-5 in their gauntlet of a region as well as freedom games against Marcos De Niza, St. Mary's, and Desert Sunrise is a massive accomplishment after being on the struggle bus since winning the 4A title with Ty Thompson a few years back.
Eastmark
Ranking: 19
Overall Record: 5-5
Blowout Wins: None
Bad losses: None
Eastmark got off to a promising 4-1 start with an impressive and gutsy win over Walden Grove, but they got into that 4A East Sky Region that has the two best teams in the state and lost 4 of their last five and looked pretty rough doing so.
I think they've done more than enough to make playoffs, but man they were not as good as it looked like they would be after Week 5. Regardless, the schedule has battled test them and they are more than capable of winning a playoff game or two if given a favorable matchup.
Walden Grove
Ranking: 20
Overall Record: 7-3
Blowout Wins: None
Other Ranked Wins: #21 Sahuaro (+10)
Blowout losses: None
Bad losses: None
This team had a chance to be a perfect 10-0 this season, but their offense's occasional inability to move the ball has really hurt them. They also were very fortunate to beat Sahuaro after spotting them a 15-0 halftime lead.
The Red Wolves have one of the best defenses in 4A led by New Mexico State commit Steven Valdez, senior Jaxsen Phillistine, junior DT Dominic Sanchez, & co., but they MUST get help from their offense to win playoff games.
Sahuaro
Ranking: 21
Overall Record: 7-3
Blowout Wins: 3A #14 Sabino (+38)
Other Ranked Wins: #10 Peoria (+5)
Quality losses: #20 Walden Grove (-10)
Bad losses: None
Sahuaro's Week 3 win over Peoria before the Panthers started playing better football is absolutely massive. Without that win, the Cougars may be on the outside looking in with no wins over 4A playoff teams and a pretty soft schedule.
However, like I said, Peoria was struggling during the first half of the season and is not the same team that lost to Sahuaro. When I look at the rest of their resumé, a 15-0 lead over Walden Grove at halftime is the only thing for them to really hang their hat on.
Unlike the computer, I'm not going to give them much credit for getting off the bus and showing up to their game against undefeated 5A Desert View. They got absolutely dominated.
Nevertheless, the Cougars will be dancing for the first time since making the quarterfinals in 2019 and that is something absolutely worth celebrating down south.
Desert Sunrise
Ranking: 22
Overall Record: 8-2
Blowout Wins: None
Other Ranked Wins: None
Quality losses: #18 Mesquite (-3)
Blowout losses: None
Bad losses: 5A Vista Grande (-36)
Beating the brakes off 8-2 Sierra Linda was the win that really convinced me that Desert Sunrise belongs in the postseason, even though I'm not super high on Sierra Linda.
However, they did not make their case easy when they got blanked 36-0 at home against 3-7 5A Vista Grande and gave up a billion rushing yards. The film look extremely rough.
But when you pair the Sierra Linda win with the close loss to Mesquite and no other bad losses, it's hard to argue against the 8-2 Golden Hawks being in the playoffs.
Buckeye Union
Ranking: 23
Overall Record: 6-4
Blowout Wins: None
Quality losses: #8 Lake Havasu (-16)
Bad losses: Estrella Foothills (-6)
A lot of people aren't going to like this pick, but the Hawks are 2-3 against the playoff field and Estrella Foothills isn't a terrible loss (still a game they should've won).
The computer may not agree, but wins over Deer Valley and Youngker should get them in, especially with 3 of 4 losses coming against top 8 teams. They have a better resumé than every bubble team I have below them.
Youngker
Ranking: 24
Overall Record: 7-3
Blowout Wins: None
Other Ranked Wins: None
Blowout losses: #8 Lake Havasu (-17)
Bad losses: None
No bad losses and 3 losses to quality teams is the argument to be made for the Roughriders. It is really difficult to get in without that quality win but 7 wins and 3 quality losses is good enough in my book.
First Teams Out
Maryvale
Why they shouldn't be in: No quality wins, an awful loss to Cholla, and 3 blowout losses against their only playoff opponents. Their best win is #39 Copper Canyon.
Why they should be in: All of the above happened before their transfers were eligible. The computer doesn't know this, but let's be real: a 6-4 region champion should be in the playoffs and there isn't 24 teams better than Maryvale. But they don't have the resumé to prove it because of the pitiful region they were given.
Sierra Linda
Why they shouldn't be in: Way too many close games against some of the worst teams in 4A. It took the heroics of '27 ATH Brandon Hadnot making an insane TD catch as time expired for them to beat 2-8 La Joya, they beat 2-8 Carl Hayden by 7, they beat #39 Copper Canyon by 3, they beat 3A #26 (of 31) Shadow Mountain in the final seconds, and their best win is a 5-point win over 4-6 Agua Fria. And losing 46-18 to Desert Sunrise was the cherry on top.
Why they should be in: Why are we in a scenario where an 8-2 team is in serious danger of missing playoffs? These region alignments are ludicrous. Sierra Linda needed to beat 8 teams Desert View style and either Gila Ridge or Desert Sunrise to really have a playoff resumé. That's insanity. To put in perspective how bad their SOS was: 25/31 3A teams and a couple 2A teams had a better MaxPreps SOS rating than Sierra Linda. But none of this was in their control. It's ridiculous.
Thunderbird
Why they shouldn't be in: Playing bad football at the worst possible time. 5 consecutive losses and 4 of them were blowouts.
Why they should be in: Quality win over Deer Valley, above .500, all 5 losses to top 15 teams.
Prescott
Why they shouldn't be in: Too many losses and too many blowout losses. They lose head-to-head against almost every bubble team.
Why they should be in: Huge win over #14 Northwest Christian and very good SOS.
Cibola
Why they shouldn't be in: No quality wins. Hard to judge a team that plays 3 out of state teams because of its geographical location, but point stands. Best in-state win is Kofa, who won 1 game from 2017-2024.
Why they should be in: No bad losses and 6-3 record.
Estrella Foothills
Why they shouldn't be in: Too many close games against struggling teams. One score games against 1-9 Westview, 2-8 La Joya.
Why they should be in: No bad losses and a 7-3 record. A season-ending win over Buckeye Union was huge for their resumé, but it's not enough in my book.
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