BJ's 4A Preseason Rankings

In last season’s 4A preseason rankings, I correctly predicted 12 out of 16 playoff teams and all 12 of those teams finished within 3 spots of my preseason ranking. The 4A playoffs have expanded to a new 24-team format, so I will now be ranking 24 teams. Here is the new playoff format:

#1-8: First-round byes

#9-24: Play into the Round of 16 with seeds 9-16 getting home games

Mica Mountain

Rank: 1

Ceiling: 10-0

Floor: 9-1

‘24 record: 14-0, won 4A title

Off. Returning Production: 13.5%

Def. Returning Production: 37.2%

The numbers and the research probably wouldn’t have Mica Mountain as the #1 team in 4A. However, the eye test tells a different story. 

The Bolts had a massive senior class last season that was responsible for 86.5% of their total offense and 62.8% of their total defense, headlined by two-way star Jimmy Leon, who is now playing D-I football at UTEP. 

But when I saw these guys this offseason between the Southern AZ Showcase in the spring and a couple of the 7v7 tournaments and big man challenges, the Bolts absolutely passed the eye test and look like they are picking up where they left off as they try to repeat as 4A champions.

‘26 WR/DB Riley Carson was one of the best specialists in the state last season as the kicker, punter, kick returner, and punt returner. He averaged 56.1 yards per kickoff, 41 yards per punt, 20.8 yards per kick return, and 14.9 yards per punt return, including a punt that he ran back for a touchdown in the state championship. He also caught 18 passes for 437 yards and 6 TDs while snagging 6 interceptions on defense. 

This season, I think Carson will take that next step and be dominant as a wide receiver and a defensive back and will likely be a candidate for 4A Player of the Year.

‘26 LB Broden Schmidt, the team’s leading tackler last season, will probably have well over 100 tackles this season after totaling 92 tackles and 4 TFLs as a junior last season.

Several other Mica Mountain players will get the chance to make their mark this season and the team’s incredible size will be too much for many opponents to overcome. 

Walden Grove, Poston Butte, and 5A Canyon Del Oro will likely be the toughest games for Mica Mountain this season, but I don’t see them losing more than one of those games.

Snowflake

Rank: 2

Ceiling: 10-0

Floor: 7-3

‘24 record: 12-1, lost in semifinals

Off. Returning Production: 44.9%

Def. Returning Production: 30.4%

Don’t let any twitter discourse about how Snowflake should be in 3A confuse you. This is not only a 4A team, but one of the best teams in 4A that is going to be contending for a state title this season, just like they have in 2 of their first 3 seasons in 4A. 

‘27 dual-threat QB Jacob LaDuke is the biggest returner on offense for the Lobos after throwing for 1,000 yards with an 11-3 TD-INT ratio and rushing for 720 yards and 19 TDs as sophomore last season.

‘26 LB/RB Hayydn Nichols will also be crucial for the Lobos after recording 154 tackles, 12.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks, and 4 PBUs last season. ‘26 DB/WR Gionn Jones, who led the team with 16 PBUs, is also due for a big senior season.

Snowflake’s season opener at Coconino might be their toughest test of the season, but region dates with Poston Butte, Combs, Eastmark, and Arcadia in a 5-game stretch won’t be an easy task either. This team has the talent to run the table and go 10-0, but with the difficulty of their schedule, I wouldn’t be surprised if they dropped a game or two.

Walden Grove

Rank: 3

Ceiling: 10-0

Floor: 7-3

‘24 record: 8-4, lost in quarterfinals

Off. Returning Production: 7.0%

Def. Returning Production: 58.2%

The Red Wolves won their first playoff game in school history last season, dominating #8 Northwest Christian on the road. This season, they want more and want to compete for a state title. 

‘26 New Mexico State DE commit Steven Valdez leads a talented returning group on defense. Valdez recorded 8.5 sacks, 14.5 TFLs, and 41 total tackles as a junior last season.

Fellow defensive linemen, ‘26 Angel Armenta and ‘27 Dominic Sanchez, combined for 100 tackles, 26 TFLs, and 12.5 sacks last season.

‘26 DB Jaxsen Philistine is also coming off a stellar junior season, where he recorded 78 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 13 PBUs, and 6 interceptions. 

However, on offense, Walden Grove will lean on ‘27 QB Gage Abuelos, ‘26 WR Kylan Knight, ‘26 WR Wheeler Delancey, and several other players that don’t have a ton of varsity snaps under their belt, after Kaleb Layton moved to Sierra Vista and is now at Buena and seniors Robert Cash and Carlos Montoya graduate. 

The Red Wolves schedule is interesting. Their toughest game will likely come at home against Mica Mountain, but they also come up to the valley to face an improving Eastmark team as well as facing Southern AZ 5A foes Tucson and Vista Grande. I think the Red Wolves will likely come out of this schedule with 2 or fewer losses.

Northwest Christian

Rank: 4

Ceiling: 10-0

Floor: 8-2

‘24 record: 7-4, lost in Round of 16 

Off. Returning Production: 71.5%

Def. Returning Production: Stats unavailable

The Crusaders offense might be the best offensive unit in 4A. ‘26 QB Laki Wallwork had a phenomenal junior season, throwing for 2,781 yards, 22 TDs, and just 3 interceptions while rushing for 4 additional touchdowns.

‘26 RB Nathan Johannes also returns after rushing for 911 yards and 5 TDs and catching 28 passes for 439 yards and 3 TDs as a junior.

The vast majority of Northwest Christian’s schedule is against teams that will likely be fringe playoff teams, with Thunderbird likely being their biggest challenge. However, I have a hard time seeing them lose more than a game or two.

If the Crusader defense can improve from the 21.9 PPG (35.3 PPG in losses) that they allowed last season, they will be firmly in the 4A title conversation.

Combs

Rank: 5

Ceiling: 9-1

Floor: 7-3

‘24 record: 6-5, lost in Round of 16 

Off. Returning Production: 69.9%

Def. Returning Production: 80.0%

After being the most-improved team in 4A last season, the Coyotes have almost everyone back this season and will be looking for a lot more. 

‘27 WR Skyler Lawrence and ‘26 WR/DB Branson Moak will be the cornerstones of the offense after combining for 1,073 yards and 11 TDs last season. Moak also rushed for 167 yards and 2 TDs.

Defensively, the Coyotes have all 5 of their top 5 tacklers from last season back, led by ‘26 LB Levi Anglin, who recorded 102 total tackles.

Star ‘26 DE Sam Pearson should also have a big season after totaling 11.5 sacks as a junior. Combs will also have most of their secondary back as well.

Combs will likely cruise through the first half of the season with Paradise Honors and Maryvale (without transfers) as their toughest challenges in the first 5 games. Once the Coyotes get into region play is when we’ll find out how good they really are. They’ll have back to back road games against Arcadia and #2 Snowflake before finishing at home against Poston Butte and Eastmark. If Combs can come out of that region in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place, I can almost guarantee they will get a top 8 seed and first-round bye in the 4A playoffs.

Arcadia

Rank: 6

Ceiling: 9-1

Floor: 6-4

‘24 record: 9-3, lost in quarterfinals 

Off. Returning Production: 58.9%

Def. Returning Production: 50.2%

The Titans bring back a solid ‘26 senior class this season as they transition from Ray Brown to BJ Pasquel at head coach in probably the most surprising move of the offseason.

‘26 QB/ATH Zach Smith will transition from WR to QB1 after playing a mixture of both with senior QB Braylen Rooney missing 5 games with an injury last season. In those 5 starts at QB and a few games of relief play, Smith threw for 1,282 yards, 14 TDs, and 2 INTs while rushing for 108 yards and 1 more TD.

Leading rusher, ‘26 RB/DB Ryan Jimenez, will also return for the Titan offense after rushing for 932 yards and 6 TDs as a junior. ‘26 WR Ian Slater also returns after leading the team with 44 receptions for 775 yards and 9 TDs.

Defensively, ‘26 ATH Jax Ashley led the team with 80 tackles last season while also recording 3 interceptions and 3 PBUs.

Similar to Combs, the Titans will likely sweep through their freedom games and head into region play with a 5-0 record. However, Bradshaw Mountain, Deer Valley, 5A Camelback, an improved Moon Valley, or 4A newcomer ALA West Foothills are all capable of pulling off an upset.

Once region play begins, Arcadia has Combs, Poston Butte, and Eastmark at home before ending the regular season on Halloween in a hostile road game environment at Snowflake. I don’t see Arcadia coming out of this schedule undefeated, however an 8 or 9 win season is very much in the cards for this team once again.

Coconino

Rank: 7

Ceiling: 10-0

Floor: 8-2

‘24 record: 6-5, lost in Round of 16

Off. Returning Production: 16.9%

Def. Returning Production: 43.5%

The Panthers have established themselves as a consistent playoff team for the past few seasons. Last season’s team was good enough to make a decent playoff run, but 4 one-possession losses in the regular season hurt their seeding and landed them a brutal first round opponent in Mica Mountain.

‘26 TE/DE Ethan Jeffs will be a crucial piece for this team on both sides of the ball after catching 13 passes for 407 yards and 8 TDs while recording 36 tackles, 2 TFLs, and 2 sacks as a junior. ‘26 LB/RB Dylan Buckley will also be a key returner after recording 76 tackles and 2 TFLs last season.

Coconino’s toughest test of the regular season comes right away on Friday against #2 Snowflake at home. They will also have tough games against Mohave, Prescott, and Bradshaw Mountain this season.

Eastmark

Rank: 8

Ceiling: 7-3

Floor: 5-5

‘24 record: 5-5, missed playoffs 

Off. Returning Production: 50.6%

Def. Returning Production: 43.9%

Injuries were not kind to the Firebirds last season as they went 5-5 and just barely missed the playoffs in Year 1 under HC Jason Lyons. 

‘28 QB Dayne Silver went down early in the first game with a season-ending broken collarbone injury after he was already 6/7 for 103 yards in his high school debut. Several other players were in and out of the lineup with injuries.

The team struggled without him, scoring only 19.1 PPG (4.8 PPG in losses). 

‘26 WRs Max Cano and Kyson Lunt will also be crucial for this offense after being the team’s leading WRs last season.

Defensively, the Firebirds won’t have to adjust much after allowing only 8.7 PPG last season. ‘26 OLB Landyn Vigil and ‘26 DBs Brent Glover and Isaac Mellage will be the biggest returners for a strong defensive unit.

Eastmark’s schedule won’t get any easier this season. After opening the season against 1-0 Crismon on Friday, the Firebirds host #3 Walden Grove and 5A power Cactus Shadows in back to back weeks. And then when region play begins, they’ll have to go through #2 Snowflake, #5 Combs, #6 Arcadia, and an improving Poston Butte team. Because of this, anything above .500 might be enough to get the Firebirds a top 8 seed and a first-round bye.

Thunderbird (1-0)

Rank: 9

Ceiling: 10-1

Floor: 7-4

‘24 record: 10-2, lost in quarterfinals

Off. Returning Production: 14.9%

Def. Returning Production: 6.0%

I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a senior class so big in a 4A program like Thunderbird’s 2025 class. Almost everyone graduates from last year’s team, led by 2024 BJ Media RB of the Year Elijah Little.

‘28 WR/DB Daryl Little, Elijah’s little brother and a finalist for the 2024 BJ Media Freshman of the Year award who just picked up a D-I offer from Northern Arizona, and ‘26 RB/LB Owen St Clair are the only returning that had significant playing time last season. 

Aug 22nd’s game between Thunderbird and Westview, which the Titans won 47-6, was the only 4A game played last week. I would have said, I’m interested to see who fills the shoes of these seniors, but Game 1 gave us a very good look at who that will be.

Little caught 3 passes for 117 yards and 1 TD, ‘26 QB JP Stewart completed 6 of 8 passes for 183 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT, ‘26 RB Melakye Little, Daryl and Elijah’s brother, rushed 6 times for 86 yards and 2 TDs, ‘26 DL Javier Pursel recorded 9 tackles, 2 TFLs, and 1 sack, and ‘27 DB Hunter Donathan snagged 2 interceptions, one for a pick six, in the blowout win.

The Titans play an 11-game schedule that continues at home against rival Moon Valley on Friday and also has tough games against #4 Northwest Christian, Prescott, Deer Valley, Paradise Honors, and more. I see Thunderbird picking up anywhere from 7-10 wins in this schedule, and I would highly recommend that they get 9 or 10 so they can get a top 8 seed and a much-needed bye week after 11 consecutive weeks of football.

Mohave

Rank: 10

Ceiling: 9-1

Floor: 7-3

‘24 record: 8-3, lost in 3A Round of 16

Off. Returning Production: 65.6%

Def. Returning Production: 84.9%

In the past 4 seasons of 3A football, the Thunderbirds built their program up from arguably the worst team in 4A in 2020 to a 3A state title threat and the best team in Mohave County in each of the last two seasons. 

Now, Mohave comes back up to 4A with the program in a much better state. The Thunderbirds return a very healthy percentage of their roster as well. 

Senior ATH Isaac Urias will be missed, but every other skills position starter returns, led by ‘26 dual-threat QB Joe Yoney Jr. Yoney threw for 725 yards, 7 TDs, and 3 INTs while rushing for 698 yards and 10 TDs. 

The Thunderbirds return several starters and even more production on defense as well. ‘26 DB/ATH Pedro Marentes, who led the team with 6 interceptions and 6 PBUs, is due for a big senior season.

Mohave got placed into a massive Grand Canyon region, leaving them with just 4 freedom games that include a rematch with Paradise Honors and a date with rival 3A River Valley. The toughest region games for the Thunderbird include #7 Coconino, Bradshaw Mountain, and Prescott.

Bradshaw Mountain

Rank: 11

Ceiling: 7-3

Floor: 5-5

‘24 record: 7-4, lost in Round of 16 

Off. Returning Production: 65.1%

Def. Returning Production: 38.5%

The Bears return enough production from a solid 2024 team to compete again for a Grand Canyon region title and possibly a first-round bye as well. 

‘26 RB Kylin Jackson will be the biggest piece in reaching those landmarks after rushing for 1,063 yards and 14 TDs and catching 15 passes for 251 yards and 1 TD as a junior. 

‘27 LB Diego Galaz will also be crucial after totaling 97 tackles and 4 PBUs as a sophomore last season.

The biggest challenges for the Bears this season will be #6 Arcadia and #2 Snowflake at home and #9 Mohave and #7 Coconino on the road. The Bears will also hope to take back the rivalry game against Prescott on the road on Halloween as well.

Tempe

Rank: 12

Ceiling: 10-0

Floor: 8-2

‘24 record: 5-5, missed 3A playoffs

Off. Returning Production: 50.5%

Def. Returning Production: Incomplete stats

The #tempe-turnaround is in full effect. Since HC Sean Freeman has taken over the program, the Buffs went from going 1-24 in 2020-22 to going 5-5 in the past two seasons. The next step for the rebuilding of this program will be to make the playoffs, which they haven’t done since 2019. 

The Buffs return 4-year starting ‘26 QB Saul Mendez, who threw for 2,210 yards, 26 TDs, and 12 INTs as a junior last season. 

But beyond the stats, this is a Tempe team that passes the eye test as well. They dominated other 4A teams and even beat some 5A teams during summer 7on7s, their big man team played very well during big man challenges, and they’ve been hitting the weight room hard every day.

Multiple guys are expected to have breakout seasons, including ‘28 WR Alex Lara, ‘26 TE/DE Zihyon Walters, ‘26 OL/DL Trent Wallace, and ‘26 LB Brooklen Curran, who transferred in this offseason and was granted a hardship for immediate eligibility. 

The Achilles' heel of this Tempe team is going to be their strength of schedule. Not a single team on the Buffs’ schedule this season made the 16-team playoffs last season and only 2 teams, Moon Valley and Flagstaff, finished in the top 24 of the 5A rankings this season. 

The goal for this team is likely to run the regular season table, and truthfully, I think Moon Valley and Flagstaff are the only teams capable of preventing that from happening. And honestly, going undefeated might be the only way that Tempe gets a top 8 seed and a first round bye. Anything less than 9 wins and they might be going on the road in the first round or miss the playoffs entirely.

ALA West Foothills

Rank: 13 

Ceiling: 7-3

Floor: 4-6

‘24 record: 13-1, lost in 3A title game 

Off. Returning Production: 48.6%

Def. Returning Production: 80.9%

This team was in my way-too-early preseason top 10 after their move up to 3A, but after they lost their head coach, QB1, and WR2 in the span of a week, I had to drop them several spots. 

After head coach Chad Mitton stepped down, his son, ‘26 QB Hudson Mitton, transferred out of the school and ‘27 WR/DB Amr Hassan transferred to neighboring Canyon View. Star senior DE/RB JJ Brutus, who won the 2024 BJ Media Small Ball Player of the Year award, also graduated.

Despite all of this, the Guardians still have a very good returning core and should still comfortably be a playoff team after making the move up to 4A. 

Offensively, ‘27 RB Kenyon Rosenthal is due for a big junior season after rushing for 653 yards and 8 TDs with 8.5 yards per carry while catching 15 passes for 330 yards and 2 TDs as a sophomore. The team’s top 2 receivers from last season - ‘26 WR Carson Callister and ‘26 TE Aiden Anaya - also return after combining for 825 yards and 13 TDs last season.

Defensively, 9 out of 11 starters and probably about 20 out of the 22 players in the 2-deep will return this season, with Brutus being the only senior making significant contributions and Hassan now at Canyon View. 

‘26 LB Hunter Cotten led the team with 92 tackles and also had 25 TFLs, 5 sacks, and 2 PBUs last season. ‘26 EDGE Titan Ashton and ‘27 EDGE Zion Aguebor combined for 123 tackles and 35 TFLs last season while ‘26 twins Iziic and Izaiah Morales lead the returning secondary core after combining for 11 interceptions and 26 PBUs last season.

The Guardians schedule might be the most difficult in 4A as they will have to go up against #1 Mica Mountain, #2 Snowflake, #4 Northwest Christian, #6 Arcadia, and #9 Thunderbird as well as other likely playoff teams in Paradise Honors, Peoria, and St. Mary’s.

Moon Valley

Rank: 14

Ceiling: 8-2

Floor: 6-4

‘24 record: 6-4, missed playoffs

Off. Returning Production: 37.6%

Def. Returning Production: 12.7%

The Rockets are another team that passes the eye test. Seeing them during spring ball, they look like a team that can make some noise in 4A under new HC Kalae Wong this season. 

‘28 QB Jahvandre Zuhri will be heading into year two as the starter after throwing for 668 yards and 6 TDs while rushing for 439 yards and 8 TDs as a freshman. Zuhri has really improved his passing this season and will be a problem for 4A defenses as a true dual threat.

Several other underclassmen are expected to step up and have a big impact this season on both sides of the ball.

Moon Valley’s toughest games of the season will come against #9 Thunderbird, #6 Arcadia, #4 NW Christian, and #12 Tempe. As long as they win one of these 4 games, I think they should be a safe bet to have a home first-round playoff game. If they can pull off 2 wins in these 4 games, they may be in contention for a first-round bye and home Round of 16 game.

Peoria

Rank: 15

Ceiling: 8-2

Floor: 3-7

‘24 record: 6-4, missed playoffs

Off. Returning Production: 82.3%

Def. Returning Production: 57.3%

Before last season, media members including myself, were very high on the potential of this Peoria team. I had them at #11 in my preseason rankings before the Panthers started 1-4 and had a very inconsistent season in 2024. 

The Panthers took 3A runner-up ALA West Foothills and #8 seed Northwest Christian to the wire in back-to-back weeks but also played some close games against teams with much less talent and didn’t put up much of a fight against 5A Kellis and 5A Cactus.

It is a new year, new team, new focus for Peoria and they absolutely have the talent to accomplish what they wanted to accomplish last season. 

Obviously, almost everyone in the state knows 4-star ‘27 WR Dontay Tyson, who has an offer from almost every major D-I program in the country. 

‘26 QB Dominic Kramer is entering his 4th straight season as QB1, ‘26 RBs Christian Carrillo and Javon Bell combined for 1,506 yards and 17 TDs last season, and ‘26 WR David Rojas is back after having to sit out all of 2024 for briefly transferring to Cactus before transferring back to Peoria. Rojas led the Panthers with 55 receptions for 606 yards and 6 TDs as a sophomore in 2023.

Defensively, ‘26 LB Lawrence Zarkpah Jr leads a group of returners that accounted for 57% of the team’s production in 2024. Zarkpah led the teams with 63 tackles and added 9.5 TFLs.

It is very difficult to predict how this team will do this season with a very tricky schedule. 5A Cactus and #4 Northwest Christian will be the team’s most difficult games, but the Panthers also have several games that I think are tossups: #9 Thunderbird, #13 ALA West Foothills, Deer Valley, Poston Butte, St. Mary’s, and Paradise Honors.

Peoria absolutely has the talent and potential to go 8-2 and possibly earn a top 8 seed and first-round bye, but they’re going to have to prove that on the field this time. If they have any issues with consistency, this schedule is simultaneously difficult enough for them to go 3-7. 

Maryvale

Rank: 16

Ceiling: 8-2

Floor: 7-3

‘24 record: 1-9, missed playoffs

Off. Returning Production: 12.3%

Def. Returning Production: 31.7%

The Carter twins are back in Arizona after a 1 year absence from coaching in AZHSFB. For those that are unfamiliar with Mark and Marcus Carter, these guys win wherever they go. 

They were a part of multiple state championship teams at Cactus as assistants back in the mid 2000s, they rebuilt South Mountain’s football program right before COVID, leading the Jaguars to their first 7-win season in quite some time, and most recently they won 37 games in 4 seasons at Desert Edge and sent dozens of kids to play college football.

Their current challenge at Maryvale may be the most difficult one yet, but there is a lot to look forward to for the Panthers just in year one. 

The Panthers have won 9 games since 2017, haven’t had a winning season since 2010,  haven’t made the playoffs since 2009, and haven’t won a playoff game since 2005.

It is entirely possible that they accomplish all of those things in year one under the Carters. 

Since arriving on campus at the beginning of the year, the Carters have hit the hard reset button on this program. First and foremost, they recruited their hallways. 

All the best athletes on the Maryvale campus are now playing football, in large part due to basketball HC Jeremy Smith, who has worked with them to accommodate his players to play both basketball and football while the Carters do the same for him. 

Star ‘26 point guard Adrian Stubbs, who had a 50-point game against Liberty last winter, even decided to come out and try football, where the Carters have him playing WR. The starting center on the basketball team is also supposed to play some TE as well.

On top of athletes from other sports joining the football team, the Panthers have a solid freshman ‘29 class coming into the program and 6 of them are expected to either start or play significant varsity snaps.

The Panthers have also gotten an influx of transfers. ‘28 QB/ATH Messan Alokpovi, who threw for 910 yards and 4 TDs while rushing for 230 yards and 3 TDs as a freshman at Alhambra, has arrived on campus with his older brother ‘26 WR Julien Alokpovi, who led Alhambra with 32 receptions for 460 yards and 4 TDs. ‘27 ATH Miles Woods, who rushed for 727 yards and 7 TDs (1 rec) in 8 games at Carl Hayden last season, also arrived on campus in late May. 

Lastly, the Panthers have multiple returning players returning players that have shown huge improvement under the new coaching staff: ‘26 WR Michael Riberta, ‘26 OL Michael Arambula, ‘27 DL David Jurez, and ‘27 LB Noah Hamilton.

The team already looked much better when I saw them during spring ball back in May, and that was before any of the freshmen and most of the transfers arrived on campus. 

NAU true freshman WR/ATH Devin Murphy, who starred in football, basketball, and track & field at Maryvale last year, even came through to spring practices to coach up the younger guys and spark some wisdom into them on what kind of grind it takes to play at the next level.

When I look at Maryvale’s schedule this fall, I see a lot of winnable games. Every team in their region was 4-6 or worse last season and ranked in the bottom 8 of the 4A and 5A conferences. Although their freedom schedule features #5 Combs and #8 Eastmark, the other 3 teams on their freedom schedule went a combined 3-27 last season. 

This team has a very good chance of winning 8 games this season, but they do not have much room for error because of their weak strength of schedule.

Prescott

Rank: 17

Ceiling: 7-3

Floor: 5-5

‘24 record: 10-2, lost in quarterfinals

Off. Returning Production: 7.9%

Def. Returning Production: 40.1%

The Badgers caught many people by surprise in their magical 10-2 season and 4A quarterfinal run last season. But most of the guys that made that run happen, particularly star senior QB Uriah Tenette, have all graduated out of the program.

There will be a lot of new faces on the field for Prescott as they look to recreate themselves, particularly on offense.

Defensively, ‘27 LB Brody Hanna, who led the team with 145 tackles, 17 TFLs, and 6 sacks, is the most important returner and will be the clear leader on that side of the ball.

Prescott’s schedule is pretty similar to last year’s. The Badgers’ toughest games will come against #4 Northwest Christian, #7 Coconino, #9 Thunderbird, #10 Mohave, and #11 rival Brashawn Mountain. The rest of the schedule is very manageable, but the Badgers will likely have to win one of those five games to get a home playoff game.

Paradise Honors

Rank: 18

Ceiling: 7-3

Floor: 3-7

‘24 record: 7-5, lost in 3A quarterfinals

Off. Returning Production: 52.5%

Def. Returning Production: 40.1%

Paradise Honors is probably one of the biggest question marks heading into this season as they move back up to 4A. 

Offensively, ‘26 WR/DB Preston Brown is a huge returner after catching 55 passes for 1,295 yards and 14 TDs last season. ‘27 QB Parker Schmitz will also be heading into his first full season as the starter.

Defensively, ‘26 DB Parker Dailey and ‘26 LB Josiah Figueroa are the two biggest returners after combining for 124 tackles and 14 TFLs last season.

The Panthers schedule in their return to 4A is pretty brutal. They’ll face #4 Northwest Christian, #5 Combs, #9 Thunderbird, #10 Mohave, #13 ALA West Foothills, #16 Peoria, St. Mary’s, Poston Butte, and Flagstaff, who will all be tough opponents. 

If they can weather the storm and win at least 3 of these games, they should be in a pretty good playoff position because of their strength of schedule.

Estrella Foothills

Rank: 19

Ceiling: 10-0

Floor: 9-1

‘24 record: 8-3, lost in Round of 16 

Off. Returning Production: 14.8%

Def. Returning Production: 63.3%

Estrella Foothills’ region and schedule did them absolutely no favors last season as their 8-2 season that included a win over 9-1 Deer Valley landed them a 15 seed in the playoffs. This season isn’t much better, but I’ll get to that after I talk a little about their returning roster.

On offense, the only key players that the Wolves have returning are ‘27 RB/DB Shawn Ellison and ‘26 WR Jacob Rawls, who caught 43 passes for 585 yards and 5 TDs last season. 

On defense, the ‘26 LB/RB Xander Teeter leads a deep returning core. Teeter led the team with 109 tackles, 23.5 TFLs, 7 sacks, and 2 PBUs.

The Wolves do not have a single team on their schedule that made last year’s 16-team playoffs. The only teams that finished in the top 24 were Deer Valley and Lake Havasu. 

And truthfully, those are the only two teams I see giving the Wolves a challenge this regular season. One of them may beat them, but probably not both. Even if the Wolves do run the table, I’m not sure if their strength of schedule will be good enough to get a home playoff game unless they win every game by 30+ points (margin of victory algorithm maxes out at 28 points I believe).

Deer Valley

Rank: 20

Ceiling: 7-3

Floor: 5-5

‘24 record: 9-1, missed playoffs

Off. Returning Production: 34.9%

Def. Returning Production: 43.1%

The Skyhawks cruised through a very non-challenging schedule last season, similar to what Estrella Foothills will have this season. 

The Skyhawks return a solid production percentage, led by ‘26 WRs Coleston Paxton and Brody Keith, who combined for 945 yards and 8 TDs. 

Deer Valley is in the same region as Estrella Foothills, where their only tough games are against each other, but this year, the Skyhawks made it a point to schedule tough freedom games.

The Skyhawks will face 5A Chaparral, 5A Barry Goldwater, #6 Arcadia, #9 Thunderbird, and #16 Peoria in freedom games. If the Skyhawks can find 2-3 wins in those games and beat #19 Estrella Foothills, they should be able to position themselves for a home playoff game. And I’m sure Estrella Foothills will be rooting for them all season to boost their powerpoints as well, LOL.

Poston Butte

Rank: 21

Ceiling: 6-4

Floor: 2-8

‘24 record: 5-5, missed playoffs

Off. Returning Production: 17.5%

Def. Returning Production: 29.9%

After making it to the all-Pinal County 4A State Championship game against Casa Grande in 2021, Poston Butte hasn’t made it out of the first round of playoffs since. 

After graduating a big senior class from last year’s team that missed the playoff by one spot, the Broncos are going to need to quickly find out their identity as they have a brutal schedule with no days off.

‘26 LB/RB Easton Filetti will be very important to their success after recording 72 tackles and 11 TFLs last season while rushing for 538 yards and 9 TDs as a junior. 

The Broncos face #1 Mica Mountain, #2 Snowflake, #4 Northwest Christian, #5 Combs, #6 Arcadia, #8 Eastmark, #16 Peoria, and #18 Paradise Honors. Poston Butte is going to have to find a way to string together some wins in at least a couple of those games.

St. Mary’s

Rank: 22

Ceiling: 7-3

Floor: 4-6

‘24 record: 5-5, missed playoffs 

Off. Returning Production: 68.8%

Def. Returning Production: 55.4%

The Knights return a solid core on both sides of the ball. The run-heavy offense will lean on ‘27 RB Branson Brown, who led the team with 654 rushing yards and 6 TDs. ‘27 QB Billy Lewis will also add some continuity to the offense after throwing for 725 yards, 8 TDs (1 rush) and just 2 INTs.

Defensively, ‘26 DE Nolan Brown returns after leading the team with 10 sacks as well as 64 tackles and 4 TFLs. 

The Knights schedule poses some challenges, but is also somewhat manageable. They’ll face #4 Northwest Christian, #7 Coconino, #9 Thunderbird, #13 ALA West Foothills, #16 Peoria, and #18 Paradise Honors. If they can take care of the other 4 games, they should be back in the playoffs, and if they can win 1 or 2 of these, they might be in the conversation for a first round game at home (Washington HS).

Sahuarita

Rank: 23

Ceiling: 8-2

Floor: 8-2

‘24 record: 7-3, missed playoffs

Off. Returning Production: 51.6%

Def. Returning Production: 52.6%

The Mustangs were in a similar predicament to Deer Valley last season. They went undefeated in a region filled with struggling programs and then they went 0-2 in 5A freedom games plus a loss to Deer Valley themselves.

There should never be a scenario where 9-1 Deer Valley and 7-3 Sahuarita get left out of the playoffs, but I think expanding the playoffs to 24 teams should mitigate those concerns.

Regardless of missing the playoffs last season, HC Jake Allen and his staff have done a fantastic job with rebuilding this program that was 3-29 in the previous 4 seasons.

The Mustangs return a good amount of talent from last year’s 7-3 squad. ‘27 QB Rasheed Martin threw for 920 yards, 17 TDs, and just 2 INTs while rushing for 242 yards and 3 TDs last season. Leading rusher, ‘26 RB/LB Will Thwaits, is back for the Mustangs after rushing for 422 yards and 4 TDs while recording 45 tackles, 4 TFLs, and 3 sacks last season.

‘27 LB Sergio Burgos is also back after leading the team with 74 tackles and 9 TFLs as a sophomore.

My schedule breakdown for the Mustangs is pretty simple. This team is more than likely going 8-2. I like how much they’ve improved, but I don’t think they’re quite in a place to upset #1 Mica Mountain or #3 Walden Grove. 

However, I think they’re beating every other opponent on their schedule and going to the playoffs for the first time since making the D-IV semifinals in 2014. 

Flagstaff

Rank: 24

Ceiling: 7-3

Floor: 4-6

‘24 record: 6-4, missed playoffs

Off. Returning Production: 50.1%

Def. Returning Production: 51.2%

The Eagles are my preseason final team in the playoffs, largely in part due to ‘26 QB Chase Brown, who is entering his fourth year as QB1, looking better than ever going into his senior season.

Brown has one of the best arms in not just 4A, but in all of Arizona. Brown threw for 1,772 yards, 15 TDs, and 6 INTs as a junior last season and has once again been impressive throughout the camp and summer 7v7 circuit.

Flagstaff also returns ‘27 WRs AJ Valdez and Aeneas Clerry, who were his WR2 and WR4, respectively last season. 

Defensively, the Eagles also return their top two leading tacklers, ‘26 DB Tuffy Callendar, who recorded 89 tackles last season, and ‘26 LB Garrett Degraff, who recorded 66 tackles as a junior.

Flagstaff has another tough schedule ahead of them this season. They’ll face #7 Coconino, #10 Mohave, #11 Bradshaw Mountain, #12 Tempe, #17 Prescott, and #18 Paradise Honors. If they can win one of these games and the remainder of other games, they should be safely in the playoffs. If they lose all 6 and win the remaining 4, it will be a coin flip if the Eagles get into the dance.

Final Thoughts

Biggest risers from end of last season: Maryvale (+37 spots), Moon Valley (+9 spots), Coconino (+7 spots), Eastmark (+7 spots), Walden Grove (+7 spots), Combs (+6 spots), Northwest Christian (+5 spots), Peoria (+4 spots), Snowflake (+3 spots), 

Biggest sinkers from end of last season: Thunderbird (-4 spots), Prescott (-11 spots)